The Verdict
Desk Scenarios
Repair confirms (the breadth case). The S&P holds above its 50-day area near 7,705 for a second close, advancers lead again, and META's capex guide and TSLA's print tonight pass without a guide cut: Tuesday's breadth thrust becomes the turn, and the pullback setups and signals get their follow-through.
The gauntlet fails (the NFLX template). META moderates its $130B to $145B capex guide or TSLA guides soft, and the market applies Tuesday night's Netflix treatment (beat, soft guide, down 6% to 7%) to the mega-caps: QQQ loses Friday's $709.80 close, the AI meter pushes toward 60, and most entries never trigger, which is the design working.
Exogenous shock. Brent sustains above $111 with Hormuz headlines live, the French OAT spread pushes back through 152.5bp into Friday's Moody's review, or the 10-year closes above 5.20%: rates and energy set the day regardless of earnings.
Today's Calendar
| TIME (ET) | EVENT | CONS | PRIOR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 AM | MBA mortgage applications (week to Oct 16); 30-year rate printed 7.41% in this morning's calendar feeds | n/a in this morning's sources | |
| 8:30 AM | Building permits (Sep) | 1.390M (calendar check Oct 21, 6:24 AM ET) | 1.403M (Aug) |
| 10:30 AM | EIA petroleum stocks | Crude -0.3M to -1.2M bbl by survey, gasoline -0.40M bbl (calendar estimates) | API reported a 4.93M bbl crude draw Tue evening |
| 1:00 PM | 20-year Treasury bond auction | n/a | |
| All week | FOMC blackout: no Fed speakers ahead of the Oct 27-28 meeting |
Yesterday's data follow-up: pending home sales fell 7.3% to a record low (morning roundups, Oct 21), against the -0.7% to flat consensus range printed here yesterday and a +0.3% prior. Housing is the rates story in one print: the 30-year mortgage is at 7.41% and the NAHB index printed 29 on Monday, its lowest since June 2012.
Earnings today: AT&T, Intuitive Surgical and Danaher reported before the open (beats, all lower premarket, see Major News); META, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research, Texas Instruments and Kinder Morgan after the close (details in Earnings Minefield).
Major News
Breadth arrived a day late. The Dow rose 1.02% to 52,495.88 and the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,712.57 on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.02% to 26,424.82 and the Russell 2000 jumped 1.65% (WSJ and SKN via the AI Trade Dashboard, Oct 21; Russell change per morning roundups). Underneath, the desk's own universe count flipped from Monday's 345 advancers to 711 advancers against 187 decliners, and health care led the sectors at +2.40% on the swing desk's snapshot. Technology and communication services were the only two index sectors lower; in SPDR terms technology (XLK -0.28%) was the sole red sector.
SpaceX: the beat, and the merger talk. SpaceX reported Q3 revenue up 161% to $14.58B with net income of $4.4B, its first profitable quarter, and an AI segment up about 830% to $7.56B, more than half of total revenue (SpaceX Q3 reporting, Oct 20). The stock, which closed Tuesday at $155.32 (+4.97%), rose about 10% in premarket trading after Elon Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a potential merger and that a tie-up has "a lot of merit" (TipRanks and morning briefs, Oct 21). Tesla reports tonight, so the merger question lands on the same call.
Netflix: a beat is not enough. Netflix beat on profit (EPS $0.87 vs $0.82 consensus) with revenue of $12.87B in line, then guided Q4 revenue to $13.44B against a $13.51B consensus, narrowed full-year revenue guidance to $51.1B (the low end of its prior range) and cut its 2026 advertising revenue outlook to $2.7B from $3.0B (company report, Oct 20; CNBC). The stock fell about 6% after hours and traded at $64.10 in premarket at 8:50 AM ET, down 6.68% from Tuesday's $68.69 close (Finnhub). That reaction is tonight's template for META and TSLA: the guide is the print.
Anthropic's S-1 changed the frontier math in public. The draft prospectus showed a first-half net loss of $80.7B (about $72B of it an accounting charge on convertible instruments) on revenue of $16.3B, compute commitments of at least $518B over a decade with reporting putting the total above $600B and potentially near $750B, and Q3 revenue up 45% to $16.8B on a slowing sequential path (WSJ and Reuters, Oct 20, via the AI Trade Dashboard). Its IPO is expected in November at a discussed valuation near $1.5T. This is the single largest driver of today's AI meter move (below).
Asia reversed, Europe is calm. After two heavy down days, the KOSPI rebounded about 3% on Wednesday (snapshots ranged +2.7% to +3.6% by source and hour) as the chip complex bounced, and the Nikkei rose 0.85% to 1.2% across morning snapshots; the Hang Seng eased 0.85% and Shanghai added 0.38% (morning coverage, Oct 21). Europe traded slightly positive: DAX up about 0.7%, CAC 40 up about 0.6%, Stoxx 600 up about 0.5%, FTSE 100 little changed near 10,743 (morning brief, Oct 21). UK inflation printed hot at 3.5% year on year and the pound barely moved.
Oil and credit, the two standing warnings. Brent closed Tuesday at $108.80 and traded near $109.89 this morning (+1.01%), with WTI at $98.92 (+1.12%) after briefly touching $100, on Hormuz and Red Sea supply headlines and a 4.93M barrel API inventory draw (TipRanks, Oct 21). In AI credit, CoreWeave's 2031 notes yielded about 15.9% on Tuesday afternoon, back up from 15.13% on Monday, with five-year CDS near 1,085bp and total debt around $51.6B (CNBC via TradersUnion, Oct 20). Super Micro was the morning's offset: up about 12% premarket after raising preliminary fiscal Q1 sales guidance (TipRanks, Oct 21). This morning's other earnings (AT&T, Intuitive Surgical, Danaher) beat expectations and are all lower before the open (morning brief, Oct 21): beats are being sold, guides are being priced.
Market Breadth
| SCANNER UNIVERSE (S&P 500 + MIDCAP 400), OCT 20 CLOSE | READING |
|---|---|
| Advancers / decliners (900 names with bars) | 711 / 187 |
| Above 50-day average | 46.67% |
| Above 200-day average | 49.33% |
| At a 52-week high | 3 |
Desk-computed from the scanner's refreshed price cache. The same series read 345 advancers and 38.18% above the 50-day on Monday: Tuesday added 8.5 points of participation in one session, the thrust the desk asked for. Two cautions keep it a thrust and not yet a turn: only 3 names in 900 closed at a 52-week high, and the above-200-day share is still under half at 49.33%. Put/call and full-market new-high/new-low counts had no dated verifiable source this morning and are omitted rather than estimated.
Market in Numbers
Credit Watch
| INSTRUMENT | LEVEL | READ |
|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave 2031 notes | about 15.9% yield | Oct 20 afternoon, back up from 15.13% on Oct 19 (CNBC via TradersUnion) |
| CoreWeave 5-yr CDS | about 1,085 bp | Oct 20 (CNBC via TradersUnion); the record 1,194.5 bp print of Oct 15 is the standing high |
| CoreWeave debt | about $51.6B | Total debt cited Oct 20; bank exposure about $1B to $3B and well secured (JPMorgan via Reuters) |
| CoreWeave stock | $62.13 | Oct 20 close, +1.65% (Finnhub via AI Trade Dashboard); the stock bounces, the credit does not confirm |
| France 10-yr spread | about 157 bp | Oct 21 morning: the OAT yield touched 5.002%, its first 5% print since 2002, with the spread near 157 bp (LSEG via WSJ); Tuesday's print was 152.5 bp after Monday's 147 bp close, the widest since 2012; the National Assembly's budget revenue vote is postponed to Oct 27 and Moody's reviews Fri |
| High-yield spread | 324 bp | Last verified print (Barron's, Oct 15); no newer dated print found this morning |
| Oracle 5-yr CDS | not printed | No dated print in this morning's sources; last verified: record 288 bp, Oct 15 |
The Record
Desk ledger: the first loss is booked. MPC was stopped on Tuesday (intraday low $464.00 against the $469 stop) and is closed in the Scoreboard. CVX and AAPL remain open from Oct 15; GILD is a closed no-fill. Of Tuesday's four setups: MMM filled and hit T1 the same day, CNQ filled and is open, V and MCK never filled (both ran through T1 without an entry, not wins). Scanner ledger: 30 signals open (6 from Oct 16, 15 from Oct 19, 9 new from Oct 20), 0 resolved; the learner folded 0 outcomes and every pattern factor stands at its archive prior.
Tuesday's Movers (scanner universe, desk-computed, Oct 20 close)
| GAINERS | DAY | WHY |
|---|---|---|
| EFX Equifax | +11.33% | The day's top gain; no company catalyst verified in this morning's sources |
| HAS Hasbro | +11.20% | Broke out of a 7.0% five-day range on 3.7x volume (scanner read); catalyst not verified this morning |
| BILL Bill Holdings | +7.44% | Software bid inside the broad advance; no catalyst verified |
| GWRE Guidewire | +7.08% | Insurance software strength; no catalyst verified |
| VICR Vicor | +7.06% | Power components joined the bounce; no catalyst verified |
Just outside: TRU (TransUnion) +6.99%, a second credit-bureau name behind EFX. Note the shape: Tuesday's leadership was broad and mid-cap, the opposite of Monday's mega-cap-only bounce, and the earnings names the desk tracked (MMM +5.78%, NOC +4.57%) sit just below this table.
| LOSERS | DAY | WHY |
|---|---|---|
| GM General Motors | -6.84% | Second day of selling on the guide: Tuesday's premarket -4% became a -6.84% close as the tightened range's midpoint miss governed |
| MLI Mueller Industries | -6.59% | Industrials name sold hard; no catalyst verified this morning |
| DVA DaVita | -6.23% | Sold even as health care led the sectors (+2.37% SPDR); idiosyncratic, no catalyst verified |
| GPC Genuine Parts | -5.12% | Auto parts distribution followed the GM complex down |
| FIX Comfort Systems | -4.57% | Data-center-adjacent contractor sold with the AI complex's mood |
Just outside: SMTC (Semtech) -4.23%. As with Monday, the losers list is idiosyncratic rather than thematic: an auto guide, a dialysis name, an industrial, a distributor and a contractor, with no single complex dominating.
Ticker Trends
| TICKER | LAST (OCT 20) | DAY | vs 50-DAY | RSI | NEXT EARNINGS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL Apple | $339.50 | -1.00% | Above ($326.92) | 55.5 | Nov 2 |
| MSFT Microsoft | $531.87 | -0.31% | Above ($506.72) | 58.3 | Oct 28 |
| NVDA Nvidia | $216.47 | -0.29% | Below ($222.92) | 40.9 | Nov 17 |
| GOOGL Alphabet | $340.28 | -1.13% | Below ($344.03); above the 200-day ($341.18) by a hair on the class A line | 44.7 | Oct 28 |
| AMZN Amazon | $262.63 | +0.07% | Above ($256.53) | 57.4 | Oct 29 |
| META Meta | $694.25 | -1.59% | Above ($659.49) | 46.4 | Today, after close |
| TSLA Tesla | $373.71 | +1.54% | Above ($361.11); below the 200-day ($387.26) | 53.7 | Today, after close |
| PLTR Palantir | $192.60 | -0.80% | Above ($183.36) | 52.1 | Nov 2 |
| BB BlackBerry | $8.87 | +8.70% | Above the 50-day ($8.36) | n/a | Dec 17 |
Closes, moving averages and RSI (Wilder) desk-computed from the scanner cache (Oct 20 bars); BB is not in the scanner cache, so its close and 50-day are Yahoo Finance prints pulled this morning and its RSI is printed n/a rather than mixed into the cache series. Tuesday's tells: META fell for a fifth straight session into tonight's print, the AI tape's quality split persisted (MSFT -3.9% from its high against CRWV -58.7% in the dashboard's tape), and BB had the board's biggest day (+8.70%) with no catalyst verified in this morning's sources, printed as a price fact, not a story.
Technical Levels
| INDEX | LAST | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE | THE READ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,712.57 | 7,705 area (50-day, now below price), then 7,690.73 (Monday's close) and 7,659.44 (Friday's close) | 7,731 (week high), then the 7,818.93 record | Tuesday closed back above the 50-day area. Holding 7,705 on a closing basis keeps the repair alive; losing it again, with META and TSLA tonight, reopens Friday's low fast. |
| SPY | $769.05 | $768.29 (50-day) | $780 to $782 area (implied 52-week high zone) | SPY reclaimed its 50-day by $0.76. Thin margin, same fight as the index: the line has to hold a close, not a print. |
| QQQ | $717.63 | $709.80 (Friday's close) | 50-day area $725 to $727 ($726.62) | QQQ is the laggard of the repair: flat Tuesday, still $9 under its 50-day. Tonight's two reporters are QQQ's verdict. |
| 10-yr yield | 5.12% Tue close, ~5.10% Wed morning | 2-yr 4.74% area (last verified print Mon 4.77%); 2s10s about +38 bp | The 10-year eased 3bp on Tuesday (US Treasury par yield) while equities advanced, the first cooperative rates day of the week. A close above 5.20% reopens the rates problem. | |
Sector Rotation
| SECTOR (SPDR) | TUE OCT 20 | 5 SESSIONS | 1 MONTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care (XLV) | +2.37% | +5.99% | +6.40% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +1.70% | +1.31% | -0.49% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +1.26% | +0.02% | +3.00% |
| Financials (XLF) | +1.20% | +1.64% | -0.32% |
| Cons. Discretionary (XLY) | +0.91% | +2.79% | +2.91% |
| Cons. Staples (XLP) | +0.62% | +4.23% | +7.12% |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.55% | +3.04% | +3.06% |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.25% | +1.15% | +8.82% |
| Communication (XLC) | +0.09% | -1.86% | -3.97% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.07% | -1.11% | -1.87% |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.28% | -5.52% | -4.83% |
SPDR closes (Yahoo Finance, pulled this morning by the desk): 10 of 11 sectors rose Tuesday, against 3 of 11 on Monday, and the swing desk's own snapshot agrees (health care +2.40%, real estate +1.67%, financials +1.17% leading). The day broadened; the week still belongs to defensives and energy, and the month belongs to energy outright.
Today's Setups
Four ranked longs built from this morning's 8:00 AM swing report sheet. Its published levels were not in hand at this desk, so the entry zones, stops and targets below are desk levels set off the Oct 20 close and the names' own support and resistance, labeled as such; the theses follow the swing report's names and this morning's verified prints. One gap, printed plainly: the swing sheet also carried ZM, which sits outside the scanner's cache, so no desk levels are printed for it rather than estimated ones. The Oct 15 and Oct 20 setups are carried in the Scoreboard.
Tuesday's desk setup filled in its zone, ran through T1 and closed at $171.37 (+5.78% on the day, 2.5x average volume) on the raised full-year guide ($9.10 to $9.15 adjusted EPS). The scanner independently flagged the same name as a breakout from range (below), which is agreement, not a second position. The second-leg setup buys the retest of the breakout shelf: zone from Monday's $167.95 high to the close, stop under Tuesday's $162.13 low, T1 at the old $176 second target, T2 at the $184.90 52-week high area. Invalidation: close below $162.00
Reported Tuesday morning: EPS $7.89 vs $7.18 expected, full-year EPS guide raised to $29.35 to $29.75 (Investor's Business Daily). The stock closed at $534.00, up 4.57% on about twice average volume, in the sector complex (defense) that carried the Dow. This is a pullback entry, not a chase at the print: the zone brackets the 50-day average at $524.08, the stop sits under the 20-day at $495.59, T1 is the 10-session high, and T2 is the 200-day area ($593.48). Invalidation: close below $494.00
Tuesday's setup never filled: Visa's $403.39 low held above the zone while the high ran to $408.59, through the old T1 without an entry (a no-fill, scored in the Scoreboard). The structure has not broken, so the desk re-issues the pullback at nearly the same levels rather than chasing the high: zone $396 to $403, stop $382 with the 20-day ($378.60) as the deeper line, T1 at Tuesday's high, T2 at $420. RSI is 75.6 (Wilder): overbought at the highs is exactly why the entry is a pullback. Invalidation: close below $382.00
The speculative one, sized as such. Micron closed Tuesday at $896.07 (-0.98%) with an RSI of 37.5, still under its 50-day ($984.37) after the memory unwind, then rose more than 2% in premarket after Reuters reported a labor-management agreement with its Taichung union in Taiwan (via TipRanks, Oct 21), with Seoul's chip rebound behind it. The zone runs from the 10-session low ($858.00) to the close; the stop is under that low; T1 is the 50-day and T2 the 20-day. A bounce setup inside a downtrend: if the premarket bid does not hold the zone, there is no trade. Invalidation: close below $840.00
Today's Signals: The Scanner's Third Sheet
From the Tuesday, October 20 close: the scanner qualified 9 signals across its 900-name liquid universe (6 momentum pullbacks, 3 breakouts from range) and all 9 print here, ranked by pattern factor times reward-to-risk. No padding: the cap is 10 and the sheet earned 9. The breakouts are the story: HAS, MMM and MSCI are the first breakout_from_range signals the new scanner has emitted, after two sheets of pullbacks only. Two honest flags: the breakouts are earnings-day and event-day moves (MMM reported Tuesday morning; HAS ran +11.20% on 3.7x volume with no catalyst verified by this desk), and Danaher (signal #9) reported this morning, beat, and is lower premarket, so its shelf gets tested at the open.
RSI 51, on the MA20 ($215.25) inside an uptrend, 4.4% under the 10-day high. Pullback to the rising 20-day area inside an intact uptrend. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $208.80
Breakout from range: +11.2% day out of a 7.0% five-day range on 3.7x volume. The entry zone is the retest shelf from the stop under the range to the close; the pattern pays only while the shelf holds. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $100.76
Breakout from range: +5.8% day out of a 5.2% five-day range on 2.5x volume. The entry zone is the retest shelf from the stop under the range to the close; the pattern pays only while the shelf holds. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $159.53
Breakout from range: +5.0% day out of a 3.5% five-day range on 2.3x volume. The entry zone is the retest shelf from the stop under the range to the close; the pattern pays only while the shelf holds. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $557.00
RSI 51, on the MA20 ($462.17) inside an uptrend, 4.7% under the 10-day high. Pullback to the rising 20-day area inside an intact uptrend. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $448.31
RSI 51, on the MA20 ($249.25) inside an uptrend, 3.2% under the 10-day high. Pullback to the rising 20-day area inside an intact uptrend. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $241.77
RSI 53, on the MA20 ($328.24) inside an uptrend, 3.3% under the 10-day high. Pullback to the rising 20-day area inside an intact uptrend. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $318.39
RSI 52, on the MA20 ($233.09) inside an uptrend, 3.4% under the 10-day high. Pullback to the rising 20-day area inside an intact uptrend. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $226.09
RSI 56, on the MA20 ($222.06) inside an uptrend, 3.8% under the 10-day high. Pullback to the rising 20-day area inside an intact uptrend. Resolves against these levels over the next 10 sessions in the public ledger. Invalidation: close below $215.40
Method, in the open: pattern factors today are the archive win rates (momentum pullback 55.6% from 1,185 resolved signals; breakout from range 71.7% from 46, the archive's best rate on its smallest sample, which is why the prior is capped at 46 pseudo-signals), held as Bayesian priors capped at 120 pseudo-signals. Each signal resolves win, loss or expired against its own printed stop and target within 10 sessions, first touch, stop checked first within a day; expired counts as no win. As of this morning the new ledger has 0 live resolutions, so the factors have not moved; the learner folded 0 outcomes today.
Analyst Actions
| FIRM | TICKER | ACTION |
|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen (Tue) | QCOM | Target raised $175 to $200, buy kept; the stock rose 1.3% Tuesday (DefenseWorld, Oct 21) |
| Wedbush (Mon) | NFLX | Target cut $105 to $90 ahead of the print (Yahoo Finance, Oct 19); Tuesday night's guide cut made the cut look early, not wrong |
| JPMorgan (Tue) | INIO | Target cut $40 to $33, overweight kept; the stock printed a new 52-week low at $15.06 Tuesday (DefenseWorld, Oct 21) |
| JPMorgan (Mon) | CSIQ | Target cut $9 to $8, underweight kept (Stock Observer, Oct 21) |
| Wells Fargo (Mon) | NTST | Target cut $23 to $20, overweight kept; the stock printed a 12-month low Monday (American Banking News, Oct 21) |
| Piper Sandler (Mon) | VRTS | Target cut $172 to $146, overweight kept (American Banking News, Oct 21) |
The regime in miniature, again: one target raise of consequence (QCOM) against a shelf of cuts that keep their ratings, two of them on names printing new lows while the targets were cut. The Street is still trimming prices, not abandoning names, and on INIO and NTST the market is ahead of the trim.
Watch, Don't Chase
| NAME | WHY IT IS ONLY A WATCH |
|---|---|
| SPCX SpaceX $155.32 | Up about 10% premarket on the Q3 beat and Tesla merger committee talk. A merger rumor on the morning of the other party's earnings call is not an entry; tonight's TSLA call is the event. |
| SMCI $32.47 | Up about 12% premarket after raising preliminary fiscal Q1 sales guidance (TipRanks). The stock closed Tuesday at an RSI of 33.2 after a long slide; a guide raise is a reason to watch the first pullback, not to chase the gap. |
| NFLX $68.69 | Down 6.68% premarket to $64.10 (Finnhub, 8:50 AM ET) after the guide miss. Yesterday this page said an earnings coin flip is not a setup; the morning after a guide cut is not one either, in either direction. |
| CRWV $62.13 | The stock bounced +1.65% Tuesday while its 2031 notes went back to about 15.9% and CDS sat near 1,085bp. Credit still leads the stock, and credit just voted no. |
| DELL / VRT | The swing sheet's oversold AI-infrastructure names: DELL closed $461.56 (RSI 36.0, under its $513.37 50-day), VRT $203.56 (RSI 26.3, under every major average). Oversold is a condition, not an entry; SMCI's guide raise is the first fundamental check on the complex, and one print is not a turn. |
| T / ISRG / DHR | This morning's beats, all lower premarket (morning brief, Oct 21). DHR is also scanner signal #9 today: its $215.40 stop shelf is the line that decides whether the signal survives its first session. |
| GE $299.87 | Fell 3.67% Tuesday, the second day of the market pricing delivery over the raised guide. A falling stock on a raised guide stays a watch until the session structure repairs. |
Earnings Minefield
| NAME | DATE | NOTE |
|---|---|---|
| T, ISRG, DHR, WAB | Today, before open | AT&T, Intuitive Surgical and Danaher reported beats and are lower premarket (morning brief). WAB consensus was EPS $2.73 on revenue $3.20B (MarketBeat); its verified result was not in hand at publish and is not printed. |
| META Meta | Today, after close | The week's main event. Consensus sits in a $5.74 to $6.76 EPS range across surveys (revenue about $63.3B to $63.4B), printed as a range because the surveys genuinely differ. The number that matters is the capex guide: $130B to $145B for 2026, hold, raise or moderate. |
| TSLA Tesla | Today, after close | Consensus EPS $0.40 to $0.45 across surveys, revenue about $27.9B to $28.1B. Robotaxi and Optimus updates matter, and now the SpaceX merger committee question sits on the same call. |
| IBM, LRCX, TXN, KMI | Today, after close | KMI consensus EPS $0.3206, revenue $4.37B (MarketBeat). Lam Research is the semi-equipment read into a week where XLK is -5.52% over five sessions. |
| COF Capital One | Reported Tue after close | Was on Tuesday's after-close slate in this desk's calendar; its verified result was not in hand at publish and is not printed rather than summarized from fragments. |
| PG, LMT, CMCSA, HON, WDC | Thu Oct 22 | WDC is the memory read (consensus revenue $4.14B, EPS $4.08, Koyfin via Stocktwits). Plus jobless claims (prior 199k, consensus about 200k). |
| AXP, SLB | Fri Oct 23 | Plus flash PMIs, Michigan sentiment final (consensus 46.3 in desk records) and the Moody's review of France's Aa3 (negative). |
The Scoreboard
The desk ledger (published Oct 15) books its first loss. MPC is closed: Tuesday's intraday low of $464.00 crossed the $469 stop, so the setup resolves as a stop-out, booked plainly. It survived its stop by $0.07 on day one and by $1.68 on Monday before energy's Tuesday fade finished it; the ledger does not grade intentions. Still open: CVX, closed Tuesday at $225.71 (high $227.28), above its entry zone with T1 at $229 about 1.5% away, and AAPL, closed at $339.50 (low $338.70, $1.20 above its $337.50 stop), below its entry zone for a third straight session but unstopped. Closed earlier: GILD, expired unfilled (targets surpassed without a fill; an unfilled target is not a win).
Tuesday's setups (published Oct 20), resolved against Tuesday's bars. MMM: filled inside its $162 to $165 zone in the opening minutes (open $163.00, low $162.13), ran through T1 at $167.95 to a $172.95 high and closed at $171.37: T1 banked, remainder carried into today's second-leg setup. CNQ: filled (low $53.26 inside the $52.50 to $54.12 zone), closed at $54.18, open against its $49.40 stop and $58.00 T1. V and MCK: no fills. Visa's low ($403.39) never reached its zone while its high ($408.59) passed T1, and McKesson's low ($1,013.93) never reached its zone while its high ($1,030.27) passed T1. Both are recorded as no-fills, not wins, the GILD rule applied the same way when it costs a good story. Visa is re-issued today at fresh desk levels (above); McKesson is not, with health care extended at an RSI of 76-plus on the name's last desk read.
The scanner ledger. Oct 16 sheet: 6 signals, two sessions elapsed, 0 resolved (none has touched its printed stop or target). Oct 19 sheet: 15 signals, one session elapsed, 0 resolved. Oct 20 sheet: 9 signals published in this issue. Totals for the new ledger: 30 scanner signals open, 0 resolved, learner outcomes folded today: 0. Pattern factors therefore stand at their archive priors, printed on every signal card.
Pattern Weather. The menu changed character: 6 momentum pullbacks plus the scanner's first 3 breakouts from range, no gap-up holds and no cup and handles. Breakouts appearing is the risk-on tell this page has been watching for, and Tuesday's breadth thrust (711 advancers, 46.67% above the 50-day) agrees. The quality caveat is printed with the signals: two of the three breakouts are earnings or event days, so tonight's META and TSLA prints decide whether the menu shift is a regime change or a one-day earnings artifact.
Two old ledgers, printed side by side, never blended. The legacy product page tracked 663 patterns (651 resolved) at a 61.9% win rate and +0.08R expectancy under its per-setup yardstick (audit Oct 2). The complete signal export received since (Oct 17) covers 3,494 signals, of which 1,903 are closed: win rate 52.3%, expectancy +0.106% per signal, profit factor 1.07, average hold 2.9 days, under the archive evaluator's rules. The export is the fuller record and supersedes the page figures for the old system. This page keeps one ledger, in public, from Oct 15 forward; the Saturday Ledger resolves the full week, every week.